On the surface, things look healthy. In its October outlook, the WTO expects goods trade volumes to grow 3.9% in 2026 and 4.1% in 2027, though the 2027 figure assumes the Middle East conflict is resolved in good time. But money is moving faster than cargo: in the first half, the value of world goods trade rose 15% while volumes grew just 3.5%. Part of that gap is prices, and part is the mix of goods: AI-related equipment accounted for 47% of trade growth by value.

The takeaway for traders is simple: the winner is not whoever finds the lowest factory price, but whoever controls everything that happens between the factory gate and the buyer’s warehouse.

The picture is far from uniform. On Asia–Europe lanes, rates slid from July, bottomed out in late September and have turned up again: according to Xeneta, a container from the Far East to North Europe now costs $3,698 and to the Mediterranean $4,442, which is 67% and 33% above pre-crisis levels. At the same time, carriers are coming back to Suez: canal transits in week 39 were 68% higher than a year earlier. On US routes, Xeneta says rates have passed their post-crisis peak but remain more than four times pre-crisis levels, and are expected to ease gradually.

The risk has not gone away, though. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed to commercial shipping. According to IMF PortWatch, only 4 vessels transited on October 18, against about 85 a day before the crisis, and October has seen a record number of attacks on ships.

What to do: avoid locking in long contracts on DAP or DDP terms without a clause that lets you revisit the freight component. Contract season for 2027 is happening now, and Xeneta expects contract rates to stay well below current spot levels, while warning that shippers cannot assume today’s conditions will fade quickly.

Demand for overland routes is rising. In the first quarter, China–Europe train trips rose 29% and cargo volumes 22%. The southern corridor is growing even faster: over nine months, 746 trains ran on it, up 125% on the year before.

The Middle Corridor (through Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea and Azerbaijan) wins on speed. Kazakhstan’s government says transit time has dropped from 38 days to 13–17, with a target of 10–12. But it has limits: cargo is transshipped twice, and the Caspian ferry fleet is still small, with 7 ferries serving Kuryk against a plan for 17 by 2030.

Bottom line: for urgent, high-value or perishable cargo, set up a multimodal option in advance. Just don’t count on it as a mass substitute for the sea.

The sequence matters. On February 20, 2026, the US Supreme Court ruled that IEEPA does not authorize tariffs. Then new Section 301 duties took effect on July 24, immediately after the temporary Section 122 tariffs expired. According to USTR, the rate is 10% or 12.5% on the 60 largest US trading partners, which account for 99.4% of US imports. Goods already covered by Section 232 tariffs are excluded. For some economies the rate is capped inclusive of the base duty: the EU and Taiwan at 10%, Japan, Korea and Switzerland at 12.5%. Check the exact figure for your tariff code.

There is a new twist: the tariffs are being challenged. As of the latest reports, arguments were heard on September 30, supplemental briefs were due October 16, no decision has been issued, and the duties remain in force. There is another risk for 2027: the administration is preparing an additional batch of Section 301 tariffs aimed at excess manufacturing capacity, though it has not yet been finalized.

For traders: model two scenarios, with and without the duties. In US-facing contracts, spell out who bears the risk of tariff changes and who benefits from any refunds. Even if you don’t sell to the US directly, tariffs redirect global trade flows, which means price pressure and competition for capacity elsewhere.

For suppliers and buyers tied to the EU, this is the most predictable change, and the most underestimated. According to the European Commission, importers must submit their first CBAM declaration, covering 2026 imports, by September 30, 2027. Certificate sales through the central platform start on February 1, 2027, and from then on authorised declarants must hold certificates covering at least 50% of embedded emissions at the end of each quarter. Not everyone is affected: the regime has a single mass-based threshold, currently 50 tonnes.

The money is already measurable. The Commission published the Q3 2026 certificate price at €82.32, and from 2027 prices will be published weekly. The scope may also widen: talks on extending CBAM to downstream steel and aluminium products are under way, with the Commission proposing about 180 product types and Parliament pushing for 457. If you trade metal goods, keep an eye on this.

For the first time, the carbon footprint of a product will show up as a real cost line for European importers, and so become a condition for suppliers. A supplier who cannot document emissions risks losing orders or having to cut prices.

What to do: start asking manufacturers for embedded-emissions data now, and make it part of how you compare suppliers.

Sanctions regimes, beneficial-owner checks and clean paperwork now decide whether you can use the banking system at all. A deal with great economics but a questionable counterparty can stall at the payment stage.

Comparing suppliers on EXW or FCA prices isn’t enough. Use a landed-cost formula:

An example. Supplier A quotes 4% less, but has no emissions data, and the cargo goes through a congested transshipment hub with unreliable timing. Supplier B costs more at the factory but delivers documents, a direct route and fixed lead times. Once you price the full journey and the money tied up in transit, the gap usually narrows, and sometimes it flips.

Oakmont Solutions Limited operates within UNEX Group, founded in 1996, and works exclusively in the corporate (B2B) segment.

In unstable years, revenue and profit tell you little. It is more useful to check:

Adjacent niches also deserve a look: multimodal logistics, supply-chain transparency tools, and document services. Each should be assessed on its own costs, risks and expected returns. This article is not investment advice.

2027 won’t be calm, but it will be more predictable than it looks, if you do the math early. Freight, tariffs and carbon charges are already known. The winners will be those who build them into their models today, rather than finding out from an invoice tomorrow.